Weaker supply will drive platinum deficit higher than expected in 2024, WPIC says

Summary

• Platinum market faces 2nd consecutive annual deficit in 2024 – WPIC
• Supply from mines seen down 2%, recycled supply to rise by 5%
• Total demand seen down 5% in 2024 after 26% growth in 2023

LONDON, May 13 (Reuters) – The global platinum deficit in 2024 will be deeper than previously expected due to lower supply from mines in South Africa and Russia, the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) said on Monday.

2024’s deficit of 476,000 troy ounces will, however, be smaller than 2023’s 851,000 ounces due to a 5% fall in demand, the WPIC, whose members are major Western platinum producers, said in a quarterly report. It had previously projected the 2024 shortage at 418,000 ounces.

“We’ve got the second consecutive year of deficit, which will be equal to 6% of total demand in 2024,” said Edward Sterck, head of research at the WPIC. “The focus is on the supply, which was the second lowest in our time series in the first quarter with the full year also forecast to be near the record low of 2020.”

Already announced restructuring and slower than previously expected production ramp-ups amid low prices for palladium and rhodium will cut production from South African mines by 2% this year. Supply from Russia, which plans smelter maintenance in 2024 and continues to deal with damage caused by Western sanctions, will fall by 9% to a multi-decade low.

Meanwhile, demand for platinum, used in catalytic converters to reduce harmful emissions from vehicle exhaust systems among other applications, is expected to fall by 5% to 7.587 million ounces this year after growing 26% in 2023.

Demand from the auto sector will increase by 2% due to slower consumer demand for battery electric vehicles, growth in both heavy-duty and hybrid vehicle numbers, alongside stricter emissions legislation and platinum-for-palladium substitution, which is forecast to reach 742,000 ounces this year, the WPIC, which uses data from consultancy Metals Focus, added.

To cover the deficit, above-ground stocks will fall by 12%, after a 17% drop in 2023 to a four-year low of 3.620 million ounces, it added.

PLATINUM SUPPLY/DEMAND (‘000 oz)*