Gold Market Commentary: Higher-for-longer: Inflation not growth

New-high fatigue?

Gold had another good month in April, posting a 4% gain and ending the month at US$2,307/oz. Unlike March, gold finished off its intra-month high from probable buyer reticence and profit-taking – reflected in falling Chinese premia, lower Indian imports and flat-lining COMEX positioning. On the flipside, the trend in North American gold ETF flows turned positive – albeit slightly – joining strong demand for Asian ETFs.

Turning to our Gold Return Attribution Model (GRAM), existing variables and their longer-term relationships to gold returns have, for the second consecutive month, failed to capture price strength in its entirety. Adding a geopolitical risk proxy as well as positioning in the Shanghai futures exchange offers an explanation for some of the moves in March and April, but one other major explanatory factor is still missing. In this context, we believe that central bank buying, as recorded in our recent Gold Demand Trends report and evidenced in higher LBMA volumes, was once again a significant contributor to gold returns.

April review

Gold hit new all-time highs in April but pulled back by month-end: Chinese buying and central banks appear major drivers of support.