Fed Chair Jerome Powell Projects Optimism, But Inflation Data Are in the Driver’s Seat

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell tried to keep the central bank’s options open Wednesday by sticking with his view that interest rates are restrictive and that inflation was likely to resume its decline.

But a string of disappointing readings on price and wage pressures have led investors to put less weight on the central bank’s outlook and more attention on how the economic data unfold.

“Powell can say whatever he wants, but ultimately the inflation numbers will dictate what happens,” said Neil Dutta, head of economic research at Renaissance Macro Research.

The Fed maintained language in its policy statement Wednesday that suggested an interest-rate cut was still more likely than an increase—a so-called easing bias. But William English, a former senior Fed adviser, said it was possible that if inflation data continued to run hotter, the Fed would need to jettison that guidance, opening the door wider to hikes.