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Gold Market Commentary: Higher-for-longer: Inflation not growth

New-high fatigue?   Gold had another good month in April, posting a 4% gain and ending the month at US$2,307/oz. Unlike March, gold finished off its intra-month high from probable buyer reticence and profit-taking – reflected in falling Chinese premia, lower Indian imports and flat-lining COMEX positioning. On the flipside, the trend in North American [...] READ MORE

Americans have spent their savings. Economists worry about what comes next

Americans saved about $2.1 trillion during the pandemic. Now it's all gone. Americans saved quite a bit of money during the pandemic: $2.1 trillion worth, to be exact.   That extra cushion meant that consumers kept spending in the years that followed and the economy remained robust despite rising interest rates and persistent, though gradually [...] READ MORE

Time To Bet Against Banks

Why Bet Against Banks Now? Two main reasons. First, the Federal Reserve’s new, post Silicon Valley Bank collapse assistance program, The Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), has expired. And second, the Fed’s first rate cut—initially expected in the first quarter of this year—has been pushed off indefinitely due to persistent inflation. So banks still have [...] READ MORE

Lag effects from the past are driving inflation today

It has been three long years since inflation first ripped upward. But the inflation data in 2024 is, in important ways, being driven by that initial series of economic disruptions that took place in 2021 and 2022.   Why it matters: In one sense, this is good news — it implies that once these lag [...] READ MORE

Oil Erases Losses as Stockpile Decline Signals Tighter Market

Oil erased earlier losses after government data showed a decline in US stockpiles, signaling a tighter physical market.   West Texas Intermediate traded above $78 a barrel as crude oil inventories fell by 1.36 million barrels, according to the Energy Information Administration. The pop shows that traders are taking the news as the first bullish [...] READ MORE

FOREX Dollar gains on rate outlook, yen weakens for third day

Japanese yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen with a currency exchange rate graph in this illustration picture taken June 16, 2022. The dollar gained on Wednesday as investors continued to bet on the U.S. economy outperforming peers and was higher for the third day against the Japanese yen, keeping investors wary of the risk [...] READ MORE

Gold edges lower as dollar gains, investors await U.S. data for rate-cut clues

Gold prices dipped on Wednesday as the dollar edged up, while market participants assessed the timeline for potential U.S. interest rate cuts and were on the lookout for fresh cues for further clarity on monetary policy. Gold dipped slightly on Wednesday, as a stronger dollar weighed on prices, while investors awaited U.S. data for clues [...] READ MORE

The US dollar is so strong that China’s central bank, among others, just keeps loading up on gold

Robust Chinese gold buying has sent prices of the precious metal to record highs China's economy is struggling, leading to a surge in gold purchases as a safe-haven asset. Central banks are on a gold-buying spree, contributing to record-high spot gold prices. Other central banks are also snapping up gold to diversify their assets on [...] READ MORE

I’m an Economist: Here Are My Predictions for Inflation If Trump Wins

The 2024 election will be here before you know it, and economists are watching it closely.   If Donald Trump wins a second term, some experts believe it could affect the trajectory of inflation in the United States — that a second Trump term would mean higher tariffs, higher deficits and other policies that would [...] READ MORE