Leading Economic Index No Longer Predicts U.S. Recession -Conference Board

For the first time since the summer of 2022, the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) no longer forecasts an impending U.S. recession, despite a continuous decline over the past 23 months. In January, the LEI fell 0.4% to 102.7, marking its lowest point since the brief recession in April 2020 triggered by COVID-19 and subsequent lockdowns. This change in outlook is attributed to positive contributions from six of the index’s ten components over the last six months, signaling a shift away from recession predictions. However, expectations for economic growth in the second and third quarters remain subdued, with projections close to zero, indicating a stagnating economy rather than a contracting one.