Gold is headed to $3,000 or higher, says this veteran strategist

Gold could be looking at its first losing session in several on Thursday, the founder and president of Rosenberg Research, David Rosenberg, sees gold headed to $3,000 or even higher, and not just driven by the Fed.

“With an easing cycle on the horizon, global growth weak and looking weaker, and inflation on its last leg of decline, we’re of the view that the tailwinds blowing gold to new highs are about to get a lot stronger,” said Rosenberg, in a new note to clients.

Reasons for that bullish view also include demand by global central banks, skittishness around the Chinese yuan and an overreliance on the dollar and strong appetite by retail gold markets. Also, western investors still haven’t turned bullish, said Rosenberg.

He lays out a handful of scenarios, a “soft landing” one that could knock 12% off the dollar and boost gold by 10%; a “typical” bear market that drives the dollar down 8% and gold up 15%. The ultra bullish scene would push it to $3,000 or more, and he ties that to a further ratcheting up of geopolitical tension — Taiwan, Middle East, Russian borders, Korea, etc.

“The conclusion for investors is simple: any well-diversified portfolio should contain gold, and, at present, we’d recommend an aggressive overweight. That will act as a hedge against geopolitical and fiscal risks,offer a safe harbor against a breakdown in the equity bull-run, and give positive exposure to the coming easing cycle and period of dollar weakness. Don’t be afraid to go in at current levels,” says Rosenberg.