Crucial Week Ahead: Key Reports to Influence Fed's Rate Policy Decisions

This week, two significant economic reports are poised to shape the Federal Reserve’s approach to interest rate policy, amid growing market skepticism about imminent rate cuts. Firstly, the Commerce Department’s initial estimate of the fourth-quarter GDP for 2023 is set to be released on Thursday. Experts predict a modest 1.7% growth, marking the slowest pace since the 0.6% decline in Q2 of 2022. This data will provide a comprehensive overview of the U.S. economic growth in the final quarter of 2023. Following this, the Commerce Department will unveil the December reading of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index on Friday. This index, a crucial measure for the Fed, is anticipated to show a 0.2% increase for the month and a 3% rise for the year, excluding the volatile food and energy sectors. These reports will be key in determining the Fed’s future monetary policy direction and are likely to significantly impact market reactions.